Rankia USA

Participaciones del usuario Domenech

06/03/16 05:51
Ha respondido al tema Duro Felguera
Revisando el pipeline 4t 2015 Vs 3t 2015, se aprecia una considerable disminución de los futuribles proyectos en minería. Desaparecen del listado: Colombia, Brasil, Marruecos, Etiopía, Malasia, Australia y añaden Tanzania y Corea del Sur. ¿ Y el efecto Ausenco donde esta? He notado que las ingenierías chinas han acelerado su internacionalización supongo que debido a la gran disminución de las inversiones en su país. Están ofertando muy agresivamente en sudamérica, donde MDF tiene más esperanzas de conseguir obras. Esto me recuerda al proceso que hizo Duro Felguera en su día. Me preocupan los precios a los que están ofertando. Por poner un ejemplo,en la licitación de Kuwait, la empresa Sepco3 junto al socio local Al-Mulla Group ofertó un 16% más barato que MDF. .....ahora mismo lo único que conozco es el proyecto de Kenia. Sí, el de las ofertas de empleo fantasmas que hace como año y medio que anuncian en infojobs. Aparte de eso, no tengo localizado ningún proyecto de los medianos o grandes que pueda salir. Espero que sea culpa de mi radar. Otra cosa que me preocupa es el deterioro sufrido en el balance de la compañía. En el pasado, el haber sido una empresa sin deuda neta, siempre nos había dado un plus en cuanto a solvencia y capacidad de financiación en los proyectos cosa que ahora ya no tenemos.
Ir a respuesta
06/03/16 05:06
Ha respondido al tema BME en Bolsa
Microlector , el análisis es del año pasado pero la explicación de la situación competitiva de la empresa continua vigente. The company derives more than half of its revenue from the most commoditized, lowest growth and most competitive segment of the industry, namely European cash equities trading. The introduction of MiFid in 2007 opened European cash equities trading to competition from multilateral trading facilities (MTFs). The launch of MTFs marked the end of the cash equity trading monopolies. Initially, the most immediate casualty was the London Stock Exchange. After capturing 10% share of trading volume in FTSE100 stocks, the MTFs gathered significant steam. LSE’s market share of trading volume in its own listed companies, declined from 90% to less than 60% in just 18 months. In order to avoid further deterioration the LSE eventually reduced its all-in trading prices by >50% and the market shares eventually stabilised around the 50%-60% levels. The same subsequently happened to the other European primary exchanges including Xetra and Euronext. This deterioration in business quality, from monopoly status to commoditized businesses with relatively low barriers to entry, combined with the lack of growth in European cash equity volumes also caused investors to lower the earnings multiples awarded to cash equity trading houses. There was one major exception to all this, namely BME. While all its European peers were suffering heavy market share losses and price compression. In 2014, the all in average cost of equity trading on BME was 1.55bps, compared to 0.92, 0.74 and 0.64bps at Euronext, Xetra and LSE respectively. The average cost of a trade on BATS is just 0.15bps. The company’s ability to fend off the MTFs and avoid the fate of its European peers is about to take a significant turn for the worse. The reason that MTFs have been unsuccessful in Spain is that there are some unique regulations around Spanish equities trading that act as a deterrent against trading away from the primary exchange. However, due to the need to comply with certain new European regulations, the country is in the process of implementing significant financial market reforms. Some of these reforms are already in place while others are going into effect on October 9th of 2015. The effect of the reforms already in place is clearly visible as BME’s market share of IBEX trading volume has already fallen to below 80% by the end of last year and has continued to deteriorate. On October 9th those differences will be eliminated and MTFs will finally be able to compete on equal footing with BME. By then we expect BME’s market share losses to accelerate. It is worthwhile noting that the effect on BME from MTF competition could end up being more severe than what other exchanges experienced because of the heavy concentration of Spanish trading volume. The key barrier to market share gains for an MTF is to build sufficient trading liquidity in a particular stock so that bid/ask spreads would be narrow enough. A wide bid/ask spread offsets any benefit a trader has from the lower price charged by the MTF. The extent to which the primary exchange has narrower spreads than the MTF dictates that extent to which it can charge higher prices. At BME, 3 stocks (SAN, BBVA, TEF) account for nearly half of the total volume on the exchange. This means that MTFs should be able to easily achieve narrow spreads in those key names which in turn will force BME to reduce prices further than simply getting to par with the other European exchanges. In addition, BME’s market share could decline further as well. And there is new European regulation called Target2Securities (T2S) under which the settlement of cash equities in Europe is going to be outsourced to the ECB. When Spain joins T2S (scheduled for early 2017) BME will lose another €30m in revenue which given the fixed cost nature of the business will drop straight the bottom line, representing another 15% earnings headwind. There are one more regulatory headwinds facing BME: Open Access: New European regulations will allow market participants to choose where to clear any equities trade. Analysts currently expect BME’s newly launched clearing house to contribute positively to earnings, but once open access comes into force they may lose most of this revenue as clients choose to clear at a larger clearing house where they can optimise collateral efficiency Even if we assume equity volumes continue their current cyclical recovery and BME’s market share and pricing does not decline further than what we saw at other European exchanges, we derive an earnings per share forecast of €1.5 for 2017. Applying an appropriate 13x multiple to this we get a stock price below €20 Y sobre una posible adquisición por parte de un competidor comenta: We view this as only a remote possibility for a number of reasons. Buying BME at a premium would cost at least $4 billion so that only the larger exchange groups could even consider it and it so happens that none of these groups are currently interested in acquiring a European cash equities business. The best proof of that was the recent IPO of Euronext. ICE was desperately looking for a buyer, but there was none. Given that Euronext represented a far more interesting acquisition target because of its higher cost base (i.e. more synergy potential for the acquirer) and the fact that its earnings are already post the competitive onslaught form MTFs and yet there was no buyer, we believe that it is highly unlikely that a buyer will suddenly emerge for BME.
Ir a respuesta
05/03/16 05:28
Ha respondido al tema BME en Bolsa
http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Bolsas_Y_Mercados_Espanoles/137186
Ir a respuesta
05/03/16 03:25
Ha respondido al tema Duro Felguera
BlackRock ha aumentando las posiciones cortas aprovechando este rebote. La verdad que el año pasado ya hicieron un pastizal con los cortos ...Espero que esta vez sea distinto... y animo a que esta semana la gente compre muchas acciones de la compañía.
Ir a respuesta
02/03/16 14:53
Ha respondido al tema Duro Felguera
sabiendo de todas las cosas que se han prometido o explicado y luego no se han cumplido lo tengo claro Orviz.
Ir a respuesta
01/03/16 17:20
Ha respondido al tema Duro Felguera
http://www.dfdurofelguera.com/recursos/doc/df_en_medios/10322_157157201312925.pdf "The plant will be commissioned at the end of 2015" Parece que si
Ir a respuesta
01/03/16 16:14
Ha respondido al tema Duro Felguera
A finales del año pasado ya comenté este artículo: https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/30388122/roy-hill-failure-cost-samsung-180-million/ Samsung decía que la incapacidad de seguir con el proyecto del consorcio Duro Felguera-Forge debido a la quiebra de esta última le ha supuesto unas pérdidas de $180 m. Justice Rene Le Miere rejected Duro's claim that samsung's additional costs had nothing to do with the axing of the ForgeDuro contract. Justicia René Le Miere rechazó la petición de Duro de que los costes adicionales de Samsung no tenían nada que ver con la partición del contrato ForgeDuro. El juez Justice Rene Le Miere ha dicho "Duro has not established a sufficient likelihood of success to justify in the circumstances restraining Samsung from converting the bonds into money pending trial" "Duro no ha establecido una probabilidad suficiente de éxito para justificar dadas las circunstancias de impedir a Samsung la conversión de los bonos en dinero". o el juez ha cambiado de opinión o la compañía no nos dice la verdad.
Ir a respuesta
01/03/16 12:11
Ha respondido al tema Duro Felguera
a los que no les ha ido mal el 2015 es a los consejeros. Sin incluir las retribuciones del presidente el resto se han subido el suelo mas del 15%. Eso sí, Ángel ha pasado de 901 mil a "solo" 781 mil.
Ir a respuesta