¿Mucho más abajo todavía, Bizkaitarra? Glup, qué espanto...
Venga una copita para ayudar a que se me pase el vértigo y poder hilar un par de frases.
Simplificando al máximo lo que he leído:
-Por un lado, son bastantes los que hoy animan al personal pronosticando alzas a corto plazo, por haber visto suelo para el petróleo.
-Por otro, hoy muchos artículos alertan de que el yuan va a seguir devaluándose, de que el banco central chino no puede seguir gastando ilimitadamente reservas de divisas para mantenerlo, y que veremos repetirse un terremoto como el de agosto pasado.
Así que la síntesis sería rebote y cataplúm...
Dejo parte del artículo de Boris Schlossberg, clarísimo:
It's been another seesaw night in the currency market with USD/JPY dropping sharply on the yuan fix, only to recover when risk flows improved in European trade. After trying to prop up the yuan yesterday, the PBOC fixed the yuan at 6.5237, more than one full figure lower than yesterday, creating turmoil in Asian markets as investors once again panicked about the stability of capital markets in the world's second largest economy.
As we have noted in the past, fundamental factors require the yuan to depreciate as growth slows and exports decline markedly. In order for China to compete effectively on the global stage its currency must decline—with some analysts looking for an adjustment of 25% or more. However, Chinese officials are painfully aware of the fact that any weakening of the yuan is seen as evidence of capital flight and are trying to manage the move as smoothly as possible.
It's very unlikely that Chinese authorities will succeed in engineering a gradual currency devaluation as markets are almost certain to react with far greater volatility than they wish. Indeed, by allowing the yuan to trade in a much wider band over the past several months, Chinese authorities have already opened the door to a much more freewheeling and turbulent exchange rate market which will continue to act more like a free-float rather than the languid pace of the managed-float of years past.
Elsewhere, commodity dollars received a small boost in the early hours of European trade as oil prices firmed. WTI pushed closer towards the $30/bbl rate as traders continued to react to the production freeze announced by OPEC ministers yesterday. Oil remains the key driver of trade in the global capital markets as it has effectively become a proxy for risk-on/risk-off. It appears that crude has found a near term bottom at the $25/bbl level and if prices begin to stabilize over the next few weeks, oil will begin to lose most of its influence over the markets as macro traders attention will begin to shift to more mundane fundamental factors.
Fuente: http://www.investing.com/analysis/will-fomc-minutes-kill-the-dollar-rebound-200118576
Saludos