Contenidos recomendados por Moram

Moram 20/12/20 14:18

Ha respondido al tema IAG ¿buen momento?

Buenas tardes, desde mi punto de vista, actualmente, la inversión en aerolíneas solo puede hacerse para especular. La inmensa mayoría, salvo un par de excepciones (IAG no es una de ellas), están quemando caja a un ritmo preocupante. A pesar de la ampliación de capital de hace dos meses, el equity de IAG no vale practicamente nada. Os adjunto abajo un articulo sobre el sector de transporte aéreo, pero el resumen es el siguiente:Los fabricantes sobreviviran sin problemas, especialmente Airbus. que incluso ganará cuota de mercado por los problemas de Boeing.Los lessors de aviones (AerCap, AerLease..) tendrán mayores dificultades, pero los que tengan de clientes a aerolineas bandera, aunque pasen uno o dos años malos, también saldrán adelanteLas aerolineas, llevan 9 meses quemando caja y aún les queda otro 2021 muy complicado a pesar de que haya vacuna. Solo hace falta hacer 4 cálculos para ver que no van a poder pagar las deudas que están adquiriendo, lo que conlleva más ampliaciones de capital, rescates, conversion de deuda en equity... es decir dilución para el accionista.Honestamente, no creo que IAG sea ahora mismo una inversión para inversiones inexpertos.Os dejo el artículo por si os interesa: https://moram.eu/air-transport-covid19/Un saludo!

Ir a respuesta

Moram 16/12/20 06:41

Ha respondido al tema Grenergy renovables

Buenos días,No está subiendo por la entrada de ningún fondo, esta subiendo considerablemente todo el sector de las renovables españolas en los últimos dos días (mucho más que el sector renovable europeo u otros sectores en España).Os dejo por si os interesa una pequeña tabla comparativa con las diferentes empresas de renovables españolas y un breve análisis de la compañiaUn saludo!https://moram.eu/grenergy/https://moram.eu

Ir a respuesta

Moram 10/12/20 08:36

Ha respondido al tema Enagás (ENG). Análisis de la situación de la compañía

Muchas gracias. Más que convencer, es simplemente aportar un punto de vista diferente. Obviamente en el foro de la compañia no es el sitio que más seguidores vaya a tener esta nueva idea, pero siempre es bueno escuchar puntos de vista distintos. Como tu bien dices, cada uno tiene q saber lo que está buscando y la misma compañía no tiene porque encajar con el estilo de inversión de dos personas diferentes.En lo que tenemos una opinion diferente es el el papel del gas natural. Mi punto de vista es que va a ser el elemento clave los próximos 20 años en la transición de combustibles fósiles a energía renovable (bueno, ya lo esta siendo, desde 2010 su consumo ha crecido exponencialmente) y en países emergente como India va a tener un impacto enorme como sustituto del carbon y del dieles para generar energía

Ir a respuesta

Moram 08/12/20 05:22

Ha respondido al tema Gigas Hosting (MAB)

Os dejo un resumen de la empresa y de la adquisición de ONI (con explicacion de las AK) por si os interesaUn saludo!What is Gigas Hosting?Gigas Hosting is a Spanish micro-cap company founded in 2011. It operates in the “Infrastructure as a service sector” (IaaS), offering cloud computing services. Gigas is present in Spain, Portugal, the US, Ireland and Latin America.In the 4Q20, Gigas Hosting announced a transformational change for the company. The acquisition of a Telecom company in Portugal ONI (acquisition price was higher than Gigas Hosting market cap at that moment) and a portfolio of clients.What is the business of the Gigas Hosting?Gigas has two products: Cloud Datacenters and Cloud VPN.The Cloud VPN product is targeting small clients or individuals. Meanwhile, Cloud Datacenter is targeting bigger companies which have higher necessities of space and resources.As the pictures show, the ARPU from Cloud VPS is almost irrelevant when compared to the one from Cloud Datacenters. As it was expected, Gigas is focused on Cloud Datacenter clients. This is the reason why it has not entered the price-war that is taking place in the Cloud VPS products. Consequently, the number of VPS clients is diminishing.Source: Gigas HostingThe company has 9 data centres (2 in Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon, Porto, Miami, Santiago Chile, Bogota and Dublin.Gigas offers high-quality services to be able to compete against the big multinationals which dominate this market.Source: Gigas HostingM&A activity of Gigas Hosting (Ignitar, Oni,…)To understand the magnitude of these M&A operations. In 2019, Gigas obtained revenue of and €2.5MM EBITDA. Moreover, it obtained a net positive result for the first time (€0.22MM). Gigas capitalization before the M&A announcement was less than €30MM. At current market prices, the Pro-forma company would be valued around €70-80MMSince September 2020, Gigas has bought two companies. Furthermore, it is going to announce the bought of an enterprise’s clients portfolio in the coming days.Ignitar is a services provider based in Ireland. It provides cloud hosting services to some corporate customers (mainly focused on the SAP Business One ERP software). Ignitar’s clients are from Ireland, the UK, Netherlands and Scandinavia. Gigas bought 75% of Ignitar by €2.2MM. Ignitar employees will continue working here.Source: Gigas HostingHowever, the huge transformation of the Gigas’ business comes from buying ONI. ONI is a Portuguese telecom company focused on the B2B market in Portugal. It has roughly 1’100 customers and it provides them with telecommunication and IT/security servicers. ONI forecast for FY2020 is €37.3MM and €7MM EBITDA. ONI also has a fibre ring connecting Madrid to Lisbon and Porto which will enable smooth integration with Gigas services in the Iberian peninsula. The transaction price will be €40MM (equity).How is Gigas going to finance these acquisitions?Gigas is going to carry out two monetary capital increases + external financing + non-monetary capital increase to finance the acquisitions.The first capital increase looks to raise €17MM, excluding pre-emptive subscription rights. It targets institutional and strategic investors.There is a second capital increase, it is for €4MM, and it includes subscription rights for current shareholders.The reference price for both capital increments is €6.25/shareGigas has a debt target of net debt/EBITDA <1.5xWhy Gigas Hosting is an interesting company?This 2020 has been a difficult year for Gigas and its growth rate has diminished. It is mainly due to:• South American currencies (Gigas get paid in $, but the devaluation of currencies affects the purchasing power of the companies in LatAm)• There has been a decrement in the number of clients because of Covid-19• Gigas has increased its discounts to maintain clientsNevertheless, Gigas is in a sector which is growing rapidly due to the digital transformation and the new necessities that the companies have. It is simply too expensive and too risky to maintain all the information and IT infrastructure (servers) in the same place. In case of any unexpected event at that place, the entire company cannot operate because all the information is in the servers.Source: Gigas HostingThanks to the acquisition of ONI, Gigas will be able to provide to its customers not only with cloud infrastructure but also with telecommunications services and cybersecurity. This integrated offer will place Gigas ahead of its competitors as the traditional companies are not offering these services.In addition to that, Gigas main investor is Inveready, an experienced investor in early-stage technology-companies which has already been involved in successful stories of MasMovil and VozTelecom. Its expertise within the telecom sector will be helpful to accompany Gigas throughout its transformation.Conclusion about Gigas HostingWe see Gigas as an interesting company within a sector which is forecasted to grow sharply. Moreover, Gigas has good management and experienced investors. MORAM added Gigas to its portfolio in October 2020.Note: This is not a buy recommendation.

Ir a respuesta

Moram 07/12/20 15:17

Ha respondido al tema Enagás (ENG). Análisis de la situación de la compañía

Si, ajustando el 7% de declive del dolar durante este periodo, la diferencia sería del 34% entre el rendimiento de una compañia y la otra. ((1.3*0.93)/0.9).El margen neto operativo es mayor en enagas (50% vs 38%), pero es normal, en una compañia el negocio es el transporte de gas natural (90% del negocio) y en Cheniere tienes que acquirir el gas a un tercero para liquificarlo (COGS son más altos). Lo bueno de Cheniere es que tienes contratos a 25 años a unos margenes muy buenos (2.75 + 1.15*HH) (Henry Hub)El principal problema de Enagas (desde mi punto de vista) es que está pagando un dividendo más alto que el dinero que gana, y estas cosas no son sostenibles. Además, con la ley de 2019, sus ingresos regulados en España van a caer progresivamente hasta un 30% en 2026. La compañía reaccionó bien aliandose con Blackstone y GIC y comprando Tallgrass (Aquí fue cuando entro Amancio), Tallgrass está teniendo un muy mal año, y además el declive del dolar lastra sus beneficios, pero supongo que acabaran sacandole partido a la inversión. Simplemente, es una compañía que ya ha acabado su fase de expansión, ahora está en fase vaca lechera (disminiyendo), son dos inversiones diferentes, cada uno tiene que pensar que es lo mejor para el desdeluego. Solo intento dar un punto de vista diferente ;) Si quieres saber más de Cheniere, aquí está explicado de manera muy resumida: https://moram.eu/cheniere/Un saludo!

Ir a respuesta

Moram 07/12/20 05:59

Ha respondido al tema Enagás (ENG). Análisis de la situación de la compañía

Buenos días,He sido accionista de Enagas durante casi 8 años y vendí la posición este pasado verano porque han cambiado muchas cosas en la compañia y realmente no veo nada de potencial.En su lugar compre Cheniere (Infraestructuras de gas natural en Estados Unidos), he escrito un artículo sobre las razones por si estais interesados:https://moram.eu/cheniere-vs-enagas/Un saludo!Reasons to have in the portfolio Cheniere instead of owning Enagas5 December 2020A bit of backgroundLast summer, we decided to sell all our shares of Enagas and we reinvested the money in Cheniere. Since then, Cheniere stock has appreciated around 30% and Enagas shares have declined 10%. Both companies have similar characteristics as they are in the business of LNG. Enagas owns the pipelines to transport natural gas. Cheniere has the liquefaction facilities which allow natural gas to become LNG to be transported in vessels. Nevertheless, it is important to understand that they are in different moments in the life cycle of a company. Cheniere is growing and Enagas it is not.EnagasEnagas is a traditional utility. In the last 15 years, it expanded heavily in Spain. However, it also grew in other Latin-American countries, the US (Tallgrass) and Europe (TIP, Sweden). Its share price and dividend per share grew more than 100% in the last 10 years.However, two things happened in the last years. Its possibilities of growing in Spain became very limited as the network was already developed, so they needed to look for investment outside. Second, a new law regarding Enagas revenues was approved for the period 2021-2026. It will limit the revenues that Enagas obtains from its regulated business in Spain (80% of its revenue) up to 30% in 2026. In addition to that, in 2020 the government ruled that Enagas cannot make a new foreign investment without its approval.As a result of all of this, Enagas is paying a dividend over 100% of its pay-out. Moreover, its possibilities for expansion are very limited.CheniereBy contrast, Cheniere is a company which is growing at a fast pace. It is developing its sixth train in Sabine Pass and its third train in Corpus Christi which is about to enter in operations. Moreover, Cheniere will take the FID about if building a new set of trains in Corpus Christi in 2021.Cheniere revenues are long-term contracts for 20-25 years and it has created a “marketing” division which had acquired several vessels to sell LNG on demand. Currently, it is not giving dividend as it is using that money to repay debt and CAPEX. However, they probably will start paying some dividend in 2021 when the third train of Corpus Christi begins operations.Overall, the revenue of Cheniere is set to continue increasing the next 5 years due to the increase in liquefaction thanks to the new trains they are building. After that, it is quite easy to think about a natural international expansion by doing something similar to New Fortress.Building a portfolioAn investment in these companies cover specific necessities in the portfolio, we are talking about medium cap companies in the infrastructure business. By definition, they tend to be much more stable than other investments. But always is better to make some money in addition to have a stable investment, and that it is the reason we prefer Cheniere over Enagas.We will publish more reports about investment decisions we have made. You can leave a comment if you are particularly interested in a specific company of our portfolio.Note: Obviously, this is not investment advice, we are only expressing our views about a decision we made.

Ir a respuesta

Moram 01/12/20 15:01

Ha respondido al tema Golar LNG (GLNG): el ojito derecho de la comunidad value

Buenas! Os dejo aqui mis notas de la conference call y mi punto de vista sobre la situación de la compañía por si os interesa. ShippingShipping revenues were better than expected with a TCE of $39k/day instead of the $35k/day forecasted previously. It could have been higher but the Golar Tundra was locked down in the yard(Singapore)because of Covid for several months, diminishing the fleet utilisation. Currently, it is Sabine Pass, so it was in the yard probably till mid-October.Golar Viking conversion project is finished, the vessel is already in Croatia in the testing phase and it will start operations in December. Golar will receive $17MM in December + $30MM in January. Then, Golar will have a 10 years management contract for the LNG Croatia (the new name for Viking FRSU)Golar says that they expect 4Q20 fleet TCE to be above $50k/day. It means that they have entered in term contracts as the average spot rate for this 4Q20 is around 80k for TFDE. Specifically, Golar says that they have added $123MM of revenue backlog during 3Q20, resulting in $198MM total backlog. It makes sense as they needed a strong backlog to ask for new debt.They said that some of the vessels have contracts which last more than a year and a couple of vessels (out of eight) will be on spot. My estimations are that they are signed TCE around $40k/d for the entire year (linked to an index, so they have some exposition to market condition)2/3 of the capacity secured for 2021. 2 vessels will be in the spot market and the rest have contracts of 1 year or even longer. TCE yearly similar to what they obtain this year (at least as good as).FLNG100% utilisation from Hilli and Gimi expected for the end of 2023.Delayed the capex commitments of Gimi.Hilli is on track to sign a train 3 extension (it would double the revenues for Golar LNG). They have removed the cap,and having into account the improvement in natural gas prices, we could expect an agreement in the 1H21.9 opportunities in FLNG, probably for 2022. Source: Golar LNGGolar CFO stepped down due to personal reasons.HygoAdjusted EBITDA of $15.6MM. Impacted by the low historic rate of Brazilian Real versus Dollar (5.37 avg). Nanook at 100% utilisation and Sergipe around 15%-20%Barcarena and Suape FID will take place in the next 1-2 months. Barcarena FID is very probable, but for Suape, it is very important to win the auction (HYGO is the best bidder)Troim(Golar owner) says that they have received offers from private players for HYGO. The main option is the IPO, but if markets conditions are not good enough or if they estimate that they can create more value selling it by parts, they will do this. Troim also says that they will do whatever they need to do to arise the value of the company (Simplify the company. Direct distribution of assets, demerger or whatever)Bahia Tender– Hygo was the only company qualified. They are waiting for a resolution after Petrobras claim.The value of Hygo would be higher if they sold to private investors or similar if it goes to the market again.Source: Golar LNGLiquidityNew $100 million credit facility backed by Golar’s interest in Hygo.Expected an incremental $125 MM credit facility, drawable upon IPO of Hygo.Currently, Golar has $77MM of unrestricted cash$47MM expected in the next 2 months as a result of selling Golar VikingGolar 3Q20 resultsSource: Golar LNGTargetsHygo (IPO or selling individual assets) – Expected 1H21Maximize shipping income – Strategy changed from spot to term-contractsDeliver LNG Croatia (Viking) – Expected Dec-20Extend FLNG Hilli – Expected 1H21Deliver Gimi on time – Expected end of 2023Develop FLNG Portfolio – Expected 2022Personal viewsTurning from spot to fixed contracts 2/3 of the vessels is a good decision to diminish the business. Although the revenue in the 4Q20 will be lower than expected. It will allow Golar to have access to more debt in the coming months.FLNG is on automatic pilot. I do not expect Brent on $60 in 2021 so Hilli will not obtain the premium. However, I do expect an extension to start using train 3 in the 1H21.HYGO, I honestly think that they are seriously considering selling it to a private investor if the market is not able to price it as they want. I hope they continue with the IPO, but the conference call of today make me think it. HYGO needs to continue earning biddings and growing, and it needs to increase the utilization rate of Sergipe.Overall, Golar is trying to reduce the risk, obtain longer contracts and fight against its debt until HYGO and the FLNG segment start producing higher benefits. There are several catalysts in the short term that can increase the market cap of the company.

Ir a respuesta

Moram 01/10/20 07:36

Ha respondido al tema Golar LNG (GLNG): el ojito derecho de la comunidad value

Esta claro que si miramos los números sin entender la historía que hay detrás, es para mantenerse al margen. Es por eso que pienso que analizar empresas sol por numero y ponerlas en un modelo, no vale para nada, porque lo que da valor al modelo es la calidad de las "assumptions" que usas al valorar la empresa.La empresa ha sufrido una transformación enorme desde 2016. Antes era un negocio de shipping (altamente ciclico) y ahora es un negocio de infrastructuras ( o lo terminará de ser en 2/3 años, cuando se puedan quitar del medio la parte de shipping y empiece Gimi + proyectos de Hygo)Para hacer todo eso, se necesita deuda, y Golar ha estado aumentandola considerablemente durante los últimos años, eso tiene sus riesgos.Ahora mismo la situación es que el shipping está en la parte baja del ciclo y los ingresos son bajos. Tienen un proyecto de los 2 FLNG que está proporcionando EBITDA constante y el segundo llegará en 2023. Y Hygo (Filial Infrastructuras Brasil) esta en proceso de salir a bolsa (con un escándalo salpicandole de por medio) y creciendo a un buen ritmo.Evidentemente hay varios riesgos por el camino (vencimientos de deuda y el escandalo de Hygo), pero los activos que tiene son muy buenos, proporcionan flujos de caja estables y se puede creer que le pueden dar la vuelta a la situación. Es una inversión con riesgo, si, pero creo que puede salir muy bien. Mira por ejemplo lo que esta haciendo New Fortress, Si Golar estabiliza su deuda y empieza a poner contratos en marcha, el futuro es brillante.

Ir a respuesta

Moram 18/05/20 14:02

Ha respondido al tema Golar LNG (GLNG): el ojito derecho de la comunidad value

Saca resultados el 28 de mayo. Ahora mismo solo se está moviendo por técnico. He leido algunas estimaciones de que el EPS de este Q1 va a ser negativo (por poco). Entiendo que habiendo funcionado Golar power solo 5 días su aporte no va a ser muy significativo. Dependerá de como lo haya hecho la parte de Shipping puesto que la de FLNG es fijo.Qué esperaís?Gracias!

Ir a respuesta