Hola, no sé si lo ha puesto alguien, pero adjunto comentario del analista de UBS después del conf call del CEO de Aryzta post anuncio de ampliación y demás (13/08):
No outlook on FY 19E yet but some details on restructuring costs
(1) In the conference call, there were many questions on the FY 19E outlook
considering organic growth trends and inflationary cost pressure as this is key for
investor`s sentiment. Aryzta did not share details yet on the FY 19E outlook but is
planning to do so on the 01 October. In general the company stated to strongly
believe in profitability improvements medium term. We confirm our view and
see downside rather than upside risk to consensus estimates due to inflationary
cost pressure (supply chain, raw material costs). (2) On the €150m non-recurring
costs linked to the net €90m cost saving run rate by FY 21E, Aryzta stated it will
all be cash and can be split predominantly between restructuring costs running
through the P&L and capex for productivity increases/ automatisation. Aryzta
also stated to be in the implementation phase of the cost savings and it will take
some time to execute on it (we think the FY 19E benefits could be limited).
CEO is not expecting customer losses
The CEO stated he is not expecting losses of key customers after having spoken
to many of them recently. In addition, the CEO sees some current customer
insourcing of bakery goods production in Europe (Switzerland, Germany) not as
a general industry trend.
Preparation of capital increase takes some time
Aryzta stated they wanted to inform the market immediately of their plans of
a capital increase. However more details of the capital increase will be shared
only on the 01 October as it needs some time to prepare and fulfil some legal
requirements.
Net debt, EPS and implied PEx scenarios
(1) In a scenario Aryzta raises €800m equity, we estimate its FY 19E net debt/
EBITDA including the hybrid (excluding) would fall to c4.4x (c2x). In a scenario
Aryzta delivers on its at least €450m asset disposal target on top, (incrementally
still some €300m to be executed), we estimate its net debt/EBITDA including
the hybrids (excluding) would fall to c3.4x (c1.1x). (2) In a scenario of an €800m
capital increase on the current Aryzta share price, a 10% discount and a 20%
discount, we estimate the FY 19E EPS dilution would be some c35%, c40%
and c45%. (3) In a scenario of a €800m capital increase at a 10% discount
to the share price closing 10 August, the stock would trade on c11x PE. In a
scenario of 10-20% downside risk to consensus earnings, the stock would trade
on c12-13.5x PE.
