Participaciones del usuario Luis Angel Hernandez - Fondos

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Luis Angel Hernandez 10/10/20 10:48

Ha respondido al tema Destripando el Oakmark Global

Aquí la última carta de Nygren::https://oakmark.com/news-insights/bill-nygren-market-commentary-3q20/Alerta de que las nuevas grandes compañías su capitalización es muy superior a sus ventas comparado con la composición tradicional. Sigue su apuesta por los 3 grandes bancos norteamericanos

Luis Angel Hernandez 10/07/20 15:50

Ha respondido al tema Destripando el Oakmark Global

The second quarter seemed like the first quarter movie was played backwards. At the beginning of the year, stock prices increased modestly and then quickly plummeted in the fastest ever bear market, with the S&P 500 Index dropping by 34% in 23 trading days. The second quarter started with the fastest ever 50-day stock price recovery, during which the S&P 500 shot up 40% (including a few days at the end of March), which was followed by a modest decline. Though not intuitive, a 40% gain doesn’t offset a 34% decline (0.66 x 1.40 = 0.92), so the S&P 500 now sits somewhat below its beginning of the year level. For anyone who rebalanced their portfolios after the first quarter decline by adding equity exposure, the sharp rally presented another opportunity to rebalance—this time to trim exposure after price increases. The speed of both the decline and the recovery shows why we suggest using large market moves rather than the calendar as the signal that it’s time to rebalance your portfolios.In addition, the first quarter began with all of us working in our offices and ended with everyone working from home. That, too, played out in reverse in the second quarter as businesses began returning to their offices in June. We now have about 50 of our 200 employees back in the office, including most of our investment team. Though I’m incredibly proud of how well our employees functioned in work-from-home mode, it is great being back in the office and collaborating with peers, despite it being mask-to-mask.When companies reported their first-quarter results in April and May, we heard unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented.” The Bloomberg article that included the quote at the top states that almost 75% of companies used the word “unprecedented” during their quarterly conference calls—and IBM topped the charts using it seven times! Calling the environment “unprecedented” gave management teams cover for not meeting their forecasts. As unusual as the past six months have been, I won’t use that word because it unnecessarily heightens investor concerns. Economic conditions change, sometimes abruptly, and we need to respond by changing our valuation estimates to reflect the new expectations. This isn’t the first time conditions have shifted rapidly and it won’t be the last. When lockdown began in March, we quickly changed our near-term forecast to the severely adverse scenario that the Fed uses for its annual bank stress tests. Despite three months of new data to refine that forecast, it’s still our best guess, and it makes the stocks we own appear undervalued.The financial media has made a parlor game out of guessing what letter or other shape the economic decline and recovery will look like, so our shareholders ask us the same question. We are estimating values based on a scenario that looks kind of like a check mark: a quick, nearly vertical decline, followed by a less vertical, longer recovery that ends up at a higher level than from where the decline started. So, given that the recession began in March, the recovery should get underway in the second half of 2020 and by 2022, GDP should surpass 2019 levels. More important, our valuations are based on discounting cash flows for many years past 2022, years that we expect to average “normal,” and these are much more meaningful to our estimate of intrinsic value than the exact moment the GDP fully recovers. Based on our forecast, we think the S&P 500 is roughly appropriately priced, yet we are having no problem identifying individual stocks that appear significantly undervalued.Many strategists now claim that “value looks cheap compared to growth.” Though I understand what they mean, and even agree with it, the phrase bothers me. To them, “value” is a euphemism for inferior businesses. But “value” and “growth” aren’t opposites. When we say we are value investors, it doesn’t mean that we limit our investments to below-average businesses. It simply means that we estimate what each business is worth based on its own unique fundamentals and buy only those that are priced well below that estimate. It’s just logical that the value we ascribe to rapid growth businesses is more than we ascribe to slow growth—or declining—businesses. Using our definition of “value,” rapidly growing companies, like Alphabet and Facebook, are “cheap” today, despite having trailing P/E ratios that are higher than the average stock. And slower growth companies, like banks such as Citigroup and Capital One with trailing P/E ratios that are a small fraction of the average stock, also look cheap. To us, “value stocks” are always cheap because, by our definition, they are the stocks priced at the largest discounts to our estimates of business value, regardless of their P/Es and growth rates. Notwithstanding our more inclusive definition of value, last quarter, on days the Russell 1000 Value Index outperformed the S&P 500, Oakmark and Oakmark Select performed better than both over 80% of the time. Based on that, we believe that we are well positioned to profit from a recovery of traditional value investing.When strategists say that value is cheap, they are referring to stocks that are typically priced at a discount to the average stock (using a statistic like P/E or P/B ratio) and are saying that the current discount is larger than it normally is. That is clearly the case for financial stocks today and is why we have more of your assets invested in that industry than in any other. Over the past 30 years, banks have been priced at an average P/E that is about 33% below the S&P 500. For that reason, they are almost always referred to as “value stocks.” Because this year won’t be a representative year, P/E ratios based on 2020 earnings provide little information about how a stock is being priced. Using consensus 2021 estimates instead, the banks we own are selling at an average of 9 times earnings while the S&P 500 sells at 19 times. Selling at a P/E discount of 53% to the S&P 500, our banks would have to increase in price by 40% to be priced at their average discount.Further, we believe that big banks today are much better businesses than they were previously due to economies of scale in spending for online banking, fraud protection, regulatory compliance and technology. This creates an important cost advantage relative to smaller competitors. In addition, they have more equity relative to their assets, which significantly reduces their risk. Some investors are concerned that with short-term interest rates near zero, banks will struggle with profitability. We believe that banks could charge fees to offset this lost interest income. But that hasn’t been necessary because spreads on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards have expanded as interest rates on U.S. government bonds have fallen. We could argue that the historic P/E discount for banks is no longer appropriate given improved business quality, but that argument isn’t even necessary today because bank stocks look so inexpensive compared to their own history.Last quarter I closed by saying that when I write next quarter’s report, if we are going to baseball games, eating indoors and re-booking travel plans, the stock market will likely be higher. We aren’t quite there yet, but baseball is developing rules that would allow fans to safely attend games, restaurants are open at reduced capacity and domestic travel has resumed. Three months ago, when less was known about the coronavirus, there was a fear that walking past someone who didn’t know they were sick, or touching the same doorknob as they did, was risking one’s life. Today, much more is understood about both how the disease is transmitted and its severity. It now appears much less dire than was feared back in March, which explains why the stock market has reacted by reversing most of its losses.Though we believe the market is now reasonably priced, we expect both the economy and value investing to recover and believe that our portfolios are considerably undervalued and well positioned for both recoveries.Thank you for your interest and for your investment in our funds.

Luis Angel Hernandez 09/07/20 02:25

Ha respondido al tema ¿Es hora de invertir en oro?

Informe de WisdomTree sobre las perspectivas del oro para 2021El oro es la única materia prima, entre las de referencia, en haber obtenido beneficios durante el primer semestre de 2020. La crisis por la COVID-19 ha destrozado el libro de jugadas para 2020. El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), por ejemplo, ha comenzado el año esperando un crecimiento mundial del PIB del 3.3%. Sin embargo, posteriormente lo revisó a la baja previendo una contracción del -4.9%. Los activos cíclicos han sufrido grandes pérdidas, a diferencia de los activos defensivos como el oro y los bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU, los cuales han prosperado. No obstante en los últimos meses, los activos cíclicos han protagonizado un repunte como si en estos mercados se esperara una recuperación económica en forma de V. Desafortunadamente, los datos económicos clave no respaldan una recuperación rápida. Aunque el índice S&P 500 de renta variable puede estar cerca de marcar un nuevo récord, se contrajo tras haber besado a principios de junio el nivel al cual comenzó el año. Por su parte el mega tecnológico Nasdaq Composite, ha marcado nuevos récords, mientras que a selectivos con menor carga del sector tecnológico como el MSCI ACWI, no les ha ido tan bien pese a que se podría decir que marcan una recuperación en V. Y por último, los metales industriales y el crudo están protagonizando una recuperación vigorosa a pesar de estar un poco rezagados en comparación a la renta variable. Esto nos lleva a plantearnos lo siguiente: ¿Podría el rally de los activos de riesgo deshacer los beneficios acumulados por el oro? ¿O continuará el oro con su tendencia favorable?Fuente: WisdomTree, Bloomberg; con los datos disponibles al 25 de junio de 2020. Todos los datos han sido reparametrizados a 1 el 01/01/2020. Usted no puede invertir directamente en un índice. La rentabilidad histórica no es indicativa de la rentabilidad a futuro y cualquier inversión puede perder valor.Juzgando por el posicionamiento en los mercados de futuros sobre oro, el sentimiento ha cedido desde sus máximos históricos (ver Gráfico 2)Fuente: WisdomTree, Bloomberg; con los datos disponibles al 25 de junio de 2020. Usted no puede invertir directamente en un índice. La rentabilidad histórica no es indicativa de la rentabilidad a futuro y cualquier inversión puede perder valor.Sin embargo, al ajustar estas series al open interest en todos los futuros sobre oro (al tomar el posicionamiento especulativo neto como un porcentaje del open interest), podemos ver, tal como se muestra en el Gráfico 3, que las series no han alcanzado este año los máximos de 2009. En febrero de 2020, el open interest en los futuros sobre oro también era elevado y por lo tanto, esta serie ajustada era un poco menor que los datos de posicionamiento neto no procesados. De modo similar a la reducción del posicionamiento especulativo neto en los futuros sobre oro registrada desde entonces, también hubo un momento que el open interest caía. Atribuimos esta reducción del open interest a las distorsiones en el mercado de futuros sobre oro que generó la crisis de la COVID-19 (ver el Mercado de Oro Físico en 2020). De hecho, el sentimiento de los inversores hacia el oro puede ser que no haya caído tanto como indican los datos de posicionamiento especulativo no procesados (ver Gráfico 2), ya que las colocaciones en los productos cotizados sobre oro pintan una imagen más alcista. A nivel global, las inversiones en los productos cotizados sobre oro ascienden al récord histórico de 102 millones de onzas troy de oro, es decir, 83 millones de onzas troy más que a principios de año. Fuente: WisdomTree, Bloomberg; con los datos disponibles al 25 de junio de 2020. Usted no puede invertir directamente en un índice. La rentabilidad histórica no es indicativa de la rentabilidad a futuro y cualquier inversión puede perder valor.Creemos que la economía global generará una recuperación en forma de U. Nuestra visión es que el hecho que la economía no pueda en realizar una recuperación en forma de V mientras varias clases de activo están rebotando fuertemente, indica que las burbujas de precio en éstas están remergiendo. A pesar de que en esta crisis, las autoridades fiscales y monetarias han tratado de dirigir más estímulo a “Main Street” que a “Wall Street”, hemos visto una rentabilidad desproporcionada en los activos de riesgo. El oro se podría beneficiar de los efectos colaterales de una burbuja. En nuestro informe de “Market Outlook 2020”, planteamos la pregunta de: “Con el margen de política monetaria acotado.....¿podría la política fiscal convertirse en la nueva política monetaria? Aunque hemos subestimado la capacidad de los bancos centrales para seguir expandiéndola, estábamos en lo correcto al aseverar que nos estamos acercando lentamente a una Teoría Monetaria Moderna, en la cual los bancos centrales están amasando grandes caudales de deuda gubernamental para permitir a los gobiernos seguir gastando. A medida que el polvo se asiente, habrá signos de interrogación sobre la sostenibilidad de este camino. De hecho, en la crisis de la deuda soberana de 2011, el oro alcanzó su máximo histórico, ya que el metal era muy demandado como instrumento de cobertura ante el creciente problema de la deuda de la Eurozona.El aumento del endeudamiento y las presiones inflacionarias, sólo pueden presentar una amenaza real a más de un año a futuro o inclusive, más allá del horizonte de estimación a un año contemplado en estas perspectivas. No obstante, dado que los inversores anticiparán estos problemas potenciales, creemos que la demanda de oro seguirá siendo elevada a medida que vayan buscando coberturas para los crecientes problemas de deuda.También estamos en un año de elecciones presidenciales en EE.UU. En el año electoral de 2016, el posicionamiento en futuros sobre oro alcanzó un nuevo máximo en el período previo a lo que terminó siendo una elección muy reñida. Cuando Trump ganó, los mercados descontaron políticas de crecimiento favorables para las empresas y el posicionamiento sobre oro cayó, al igual que su precio. Hoy, las encuestas parecen indicar que Biden está aventajando a Trump por un margen muy amplio. Obviamente, es muy temprano y la capacidad de las encuestas para predecir los resultados electorales deja algo que desear. Además, la dinámica de hoy es muy diferente. En las últimas elecciones, los dos períodos de Obama habían culminado y el candidato demócrata actual era desconocido en esta etapa del ciclo. En cambio, en este momento durante el ciclo electoral pasado, Hillary y Trump estaban codo a codo. Esto hace que se generen más incertidumbres, ya que independientemente de quién gane la Presidencia, no sabemos si tendrá el apoyo de la Cámara y el Senado y por lo consiguiente, su capacidad para impulsar sus políticas. Al momento de redactar este informe, estamos viendo resurgir las fricciones comerciales entre EE.UU y otros países como China. El camino de estas discusiones podría ir de diferentes maneras bajo una presidencia de Trump o Biden. Más allá de ello, pase lo que pase en estas elecciones, creemos que los inversores buscarán coberturas a medida que nos acerquemos a un período que a menudo ha sido turbulento para los mercados de activos. Y por último, al momento de redacción de este informe, estamos viendo un rebrote de los casos de COVID-19 en lugares del mundo donde se han relajado las medidas de confinamiento, incluyendo EE.UU, China y partes de Europa. Si tuviéramos que volver a las condiciones de confinamiento, el rally de los activos de riesgo se atenuaría y el oro continuaría favoreciéndose como activo refugio. Los escenarios utilizando el marco de modelo de WisdomTreeUtilizando nuestro marco de modelo explicado en el informe titulado “Oro: cómo valoramos al metal precioso”, planteamos algunos escenarios para los precios del oro hasta el segundo trimestre de 2021.En el gráfico precedente mostramos tres estimaciones diferentes:La de consenso: basada en las estimaciones del consenso de mercado para todos los resultados macroeconómicos y asumiendo que el sentimiento de los inversores hacia el oro se mantiene sobre los niveles actuales sin variar.Forma de U: este es el escenario base contemplado por WisdomTree, el cual se caracteriza por una recuperación económica en forma de U.Bajista: una recuperación económica en forma de V, con una inflación muy reducida.

Luis Angel Hernandez 26/06/20 08:34

Ha respondido al tema ¿Es hora de invertir en oro?

Comparto un análisis que me ha llegado de un gestor de Edmond de RothschildLa rentabilidad del oro en 2019 fue de +18%, y en 2020 ha subido casi +13%. Varios factores están apoyando su precio y los recientes acontecimientos relacionados con la crisis de Covid-19 han reforzado esta tendencia. El oro, además, juega un papel importante en las carteras de inversión desde una perspectiva estratégica. A continuación, examinamos las principales características del considerado a menudo como una inversión alternativa. El oro es una inversión a menudo difícil de entender. Sin rentabilidad ni utilidad industrial, frecuentemente los inversores tienen dificultades para estimar su valor fundamental. Por nuestra parte, observamos que su precio es volátil, y que son muchos y variados los factores que influyen en su valoración. Por lo tanto, hay períodos que son más o menos favorables para mantener el oro en una cartera. La comprensión de estos factores y la importancia que les da el mercado son clave para los inversores que busquen rendimiento sólido a largo plazo. 1. Los tipos de interésComo el oro es un activo que no ofrece rentabilidad, el nivel actual de los tipos de interés es clave para potenciar su atractivo. Lógicamente, una caída de los tipos reales es un elemento a favor del oro, ya que éste se vuelve relativamente más atractivo en relación con otros activos. Por lo tanto, el oro tiende a apreciarse cuando la inflación aumenta, o cuando los tipos disminuyen. Es por esta razón que el oro se menciona a menudo como una cobertura contra el aumento de la inflación. El entorno actual de tipos de interés bajos o negativos y de inflación positiva pero baja, hacen del oro un valor atractivo, y esperamos que siga siéndolo. Es probable que los tipos de interés se mantengan bajos tras las medidas de apoyo anunciadas por gobiernos y por bancos centrales.Nuestros economistas no esperan que la inflación aumente pronto y de forma rápida, ya que tanto la demanda como la oferta se han visto afectadas. Sin embargo, el exceso de liquidez y los estímulos fiscales representan un riesgo a largo plazo de una nueva inflación, que apoyaría los precios del oro. 2. El dólar Otra consideración es que el oro es sensible a cambios del dólar estadounidense. Como el oro cotiza en dólares, un debilitamiento del dólar será positivo para el oro. Las virtudes “contra-cíclicas” del dólar representan, sin embargo, vientos en contra en las recesiones mundiales. Hay que destacar que esta sensibilidad es relativa a las variaciones de precio, y no está vinculada a los niveles absolutos de la moneda. La fortaleza mantenida del dólar no es la causa de una mayor apreciación del oro, pero el fortalecimiento adicional del dólar sí que lo es. 3. Los activos refugioEl estatus de refugio del oro se cita a menudo como una de las razones para su atractivo, particularmente en tiempos de crisis financiera. Sin embargo, debemos distinguir dos aspectos: El primero, que el oro está siendo solicitado bajo la presión de los mercados financieros y sirve como valor seguro para que los inversores superen un episodio de volatilidad. Por lo tanto, el oro estabiliza las carteras en una fase de corrección. Este argumento de un activo no correlacionado en períodos de mercado incierto es válido pero sólo hasta cierto punto ya que, como observamos en marzo de 2020, en una situación de “risk-off”, los inversores recolocan sus activos hacia refugios seguros como los bonos soberanos, el oro, el yen japonés o el franco suizo. El oro se mantiene en descorrelación con el mercado y ayuda a amortiguar el golpe, que es lo que vimos en el último trimestre de 2018.Por otro lado, en una situación de pánico en la que el mercado está en fase de liquidación, todos los activos financieros son abandonados. El único refugio seguro es el efectivo. Esto es precisamente lo que pasó cuando las acciones perdieron más del 30% en menos de tres semanas en marzo de 2020. El segundo aspecto está más estrechamente relacionado con el hecho de ser un activo de último recurso en lugar de un activo refugio. Debido a su larga trayectoria como valor de referencia, el oro es la última moneda con un verdadero valor intrínseco. Tiene el papel de preservación de la riqueza y adquiere pleno significado en tiempos de crisis, recesión, o depresión económica. Como resultado, la deteriorada confianza en las monedas fiduciarias emitidas por los gobiernos cada vez más endeudados apoya el atractivo por el oro. Una pérdida de confianza o una fuerte afluencia de divisas pueden diluir el valor de las monedas y hacer que el metal precioso cobre más importancia.Hoy, tras la caída de marzo, los mercados han vuelto casi a la normalidad. La aversión al riesgo ha disminuido. El carácter proteccionista del oro ya no es un argumento decisivo para tomar una posición, ya que los bancos centrales han reducido la incertidumbre con las medidas adoptadas. Sin embargo, la flexibilización cuantitativa por parte de las autoridades monetarias y la masiva afluencia de liquidez a raíz de la pandemia implican también una devaluación global de monedas, que podrían sostener una progresión en los precios del oro. Los bancos centrales pueden imprimir billetes, pero no oro. 4. Flujos y especuladores Los flujos financieros, en particular en los ETF, y la posición en los futuros también influyen en los precios del oro. Como se muestra en el gráfico 6, la posición neta de los especuladores sigue de cerca la evolución de los resultados anuales. Es, por tanto, comprensible que los flujos de capital y el sentimiento del mercado, impulsados por el desarrollo de ETFs de oro físico, no deben ser descuidados cuando se construye una visión de futuro sobre los precios del oro. Las elevadas posiciones especulativas netas actuales son el resultado de los factores mencionados anteriormente, así como de las expectativas de los inversores tras la crisis del Covid-19. El interés por el oro ha aumentado de forma pronunciada desde 2019, y parece haber aumentado a raíz de la crisis. Sin embargo, no ha alcanzado valores extremos que podrían ser una señal contraria. De hecho, vemos este interés como un elemento positivo. 5. La demanda física de oroLa demanda de oro proviene de joyeros, coleccionistas de monedas, inversores en lingotes de oro, compras del banco central e inversiones de fondos netos y ETF’s. La demanda total se estima en casi 4400 toneladas, y las joyas representan casi la mitad de esa cantidad, principalmente de India y China. En los últimos diez años, la demanda de oro por parte de los bancos centrales ha aumentado de manera más pronunciada, de 79 toneladas en 2010 a 650 toneladas en 2019. El suministro de metal se deriva principalmente de la minería y el reciclaje. Ciertamente, la crisis de Covid-19 está teniendo un impacto tanto en la oferta como en la demanda de oro. En primer lugar, la demanda de joyas está disminuyendo debido a las medidas de contención y a la recesión económica en China y la India. Sin embargo, este impacto es relativamente pequeño dada la escasa capacidad de los bancos centrales para adquirir lingotes de oro en comparación a la industria de la joyería.Por el lado de la oferta, hay un efecto positivo, ya que la crisis de Covid-19 implica un cese parcial de la producción minera al que seguirá una lenta recuperación. 6. Las características de la inversión en oro Nuestros cálculos muestran que el nivel de riesgo del oro está cercano a la renta variable. En los últimos diez años, el oro físico ha tenido una volatilidad del 14,9% contra el 15,7% de la renta variable global. Sobre esta base, hay que decir que una posición de oro conlleva un riesgo significativo que no debe ser pasado por alto.Sin embargo, una de las principales ventajas de invertir en el oro es su baja correlación con otras clases de activos, en primer lugar, con la renta variable. Observamos que la correlación entre las acciones y el oro fue sólo 0,12 para una estadísticamente no significativa sensibilidad (beta) de 0,11x. Para los bonos, la correlación es mayor y se sitúa en 0,34 para una sensibilidad de 1,92x, que es fuertemente positiva pero relativamente un diagrama de dispersión. Los efectos de la diversificación son, por lo tanto, más fuertes con la renta variable que con la renta fija. 6. Implementación y accesos Distinguimos entre dos grandes categorías de las inversiones relacionadas con el oro, los metales físicos y las acciones del sector minero. La exposición pura es, por supuesto, de metal físico, pero los inversores que están sujetos a restricciones reglamentarias pueden considerar que las empresas mineras son la mejor exposición posible.Además de los riesgos corporativos específicos y los riesgos del mercado, las compañías mineras vienen asociadas al riesgo del oro. Por ejemplo, el sector de la minería de oro tiene una mayor volatilidad, tanto el metal como las acciones, ya que calculan una volatilidad de más del 35% para el NYSE Gold Miners Index frente al 16% del Índice S&P 500. La correlación del índice de minería con el oro es un 0,80, con una sensibilidad de 1,9x, que es un riesgo mucho más importante tomando el equivalente a casi 2 veces el apalancamiento! Por lo tanto, el peso de la cartera tendrá que ser ajustado en consecuencia.La relación entre la rentabilidad del oro y el índice de las empresas mineras se ilustra en el gráfico. Podemos observar la mayor volatilidad, pero también la misma dirección de las dos inversiones. 7. Historia y perspectivas Históricamente, el oro ha estado sujeto a largos periodos de calma interrumpidos por excepcionales períodos de buen desempeño. Los períodos inflacionarios de los años 70 dieron lugar a una fiebre del oro seguida de un largo período de inactividad del metal amarillo, culminando en una larga fase de recuperación del ciclo de las materias primas en los años 2000. La pregunta es si la flexibilización monetaria de los principales bancos centrales - 13 billones de dólares - impulsará un nuevo sistema con tendencia alcista. En cualquier caso, en vista de las cantidades involucradas, esta es una suposición que no debe ser descartada.

Luis Angel Hernandez 30/04/20 09:47

Ha respondido al tema ¿Es hora de invertir en oro?

Este screener que me pasa Enrique Roca demuestra un poco la importancia en la parte de fondos de saber seleccionar el asset class, ya luego dentro de la categoría ganadora en su momento es muy dificil perder dinero. Mirad el comportamiento de los fondos de oro a 5 años.

Luis Angel Hernandez 18/04/20 07:23

Ha respondido al tema Mi Cartera Rankia: Dudas y sugerencias de mejora para gestionar tus carteras de inversión

Hola Hay que solicitarlo a @t-advisor añadiendo la moneda del fondo y en 3-4 días suele estar disponible. En caso de que aún no se añada avisanos por este hilo e intentamos añadirlo.

Luis Angel Hernandez 09/04/20 03:23

Ha respondido al tema Destripando el Oakmark Global

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Luis Angel Hernandez 09/04/20 03:22

Ha respondido al tema Destripando el Oakmark Global

Aquí la carta de Bill NygrenHalfway through the quarter, the stock market seemed poised to continue its strong 2019 performance, though at a somewhat muted rate of increase. The S&P 500 was up 3% and the Oakmark Fund hit a new all-time high NAV on February 12, even though growth stocks still dominated over value. We had little portfolio turnover as most of our holdings were selling at prices between our established buy and sell targets. Then, the bottom fell out. From February 20 through March 23, the S&P 500 declined 34%, the fastest drop of that magnitude in history.At Oakmark, we are long-term investors. We attempt to identify growing businesses that are managed to benefit their shareholders. We will purchase stock in those businesses only when priced substantially below our estimate of intrinsic value. After purchase, we patiently wait for the gap between stock price and intrinsic value to close.The expected downturn in GDP, which many thought was overdue, will not occur because of excesses in the economy, but because of a voluntary shutdown to avoid a worst-case death toll from the coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19. A new vocabulary quickly emerged, including terms like “flatten the curve,” “social distancing” and “shelter in place.” Epidemiologists became TV stars, tourism stopped on a dime, schools were closed, workers were told to stay home, the oil market collapsed, corporate bond spreads exploded and investors grew more worried about the banking system than they had been since 2008. Our Funds performed poorly in both absolute and relative terms as the companies we thought were cheapest before the decline tended to be those that were viewed as benefitting the most from a continued strong economy.We were unusually active in the second half of the quarter. We believe that extreme market volatility allowed us to increase the fundamental attractiveness of our portfolio. We were able to buy stocks in companies we believed offered greater undervaluation, higher quality or stronger balance sheets (and, in some cases, offered all three) than the companies we were selling. When markets make such extreme moves, desperate investors who need cash have to sell, and those with cash are able to buy— in contrast to normal conditions when trades tend to occur because investors have different time horizons or opinions on a stock’s long-term value. In the past quarter, we often purchased from desperate sellers, using assets from our cash reserves or from selling off some of our holdings that had performed relatively well. To highlight the opportunities available: typically, we at Oakmark buy stocks priced at less than 60% of our estimate of business value and sell them when their price exceeds 90% of that value. During the past few weeks, we were selling stocks priced at 60% or more of our estimate of business value and buying companies priced at less than 40%. To us, these are incredibly compelling opportunities.Amidst this turmoil, the financial media has been full of speculation as to whether or not the stock market bottom has been reached. We don’t believe anyone knows and we know that we don’t know either. Earlier this month, we wrote a note reminding Oakmark shareholders that we don’t consider market timing to be a skill of ours, so instead we consistently encourage portfolio rebalancing. Today, that likely means selling assets that have performed well, like Treasury bonds, and using the proceeds to buy assets that have underperformed, like stocks. That restores the portfolio balance that existed prior to the stock market’s downturn. In our personal accounts, most of the Oakmark portfolio managers bought more of the Oakmark Funds to rebalance our own investments.As we look to the new quarter, we anticipate that our trading activity will remain at an elevated level as we continue to adjust to changing stock prices and capture the tax losses created by the downturn. We will also look even more closely at the management teams running our companies. We only invest in those companies that we believe are being managed to maximize long-term business value per share. We will evaluate what our companies accomplish during this downturn and revise our management quality ratings accordingly.When we look back to 2008, some companies completed strategic acquisitions that were only possible because of the financial crisis: Wells Fargo purchased Wachovia, Liberty Media bought Sirius XM, Comcast bought NBC Universal and Berkshire Hathaway bought Burlington Northern. In hindsight, each of these added significantly to the acquirer’s per share value. Other companies, such as Netflix, took advantage of their own depressed share price to reduce the number of shares outstanding, increasing each remaining share’s percentage ownership. From late 2007 through 2010, Netflix repurchased 27% of its outstanding shares at an average price of $6 per share. Netflix today is priced at $372 per share, more than 60 times the repurchase price. We have no doubt that many of our companies will be looking for the value-enhancing opportunities created by this economic downturn.On a final note, I want to express my thanks to the Harris Associates IT team. We’ve never been a work-from-home firm, believing that the corporate culture we so jealously guard would be eroded without the shared experience of being in the office together. Despite that, to protect our employees and our investors, we went to a work-from-home mandate a week before the city of Chicago did. It was no small task to make sure that all of our 200 employees could seamlessly communicate with each other, that our many data feeds were fully accessible and that we could execute the increased trading volume that we expected in a high volatility environment. It went off without a hitch.Halfway through the quarter, the stock market seemed poised to continue its strong 2019 performance, though at a somewhat muted rate of increase. The S&P 500 was up 3% and the Oakmark Fund hit a new all-time high NAV on February 12, even though growth stocks still dominated over value. We had little portfolio turnover as most of our holdings were selling at prices between our established buy and sell targets. Then, the bottom fell out. From February 20 through March 23, the S&P 500 declined 34%, the fastest drop of that magnitude in history.At Oakmark, we are long-term investors. We attempt to identify growing businesses that are managed to benefit their shareholders. We will purchase stock in those businesses only when priced substantially below our estimate of intrinsic value. After purchase, we patiently wait for the gap between stock price and intrinsic value to close.The expected downturn in GDP, which many thought was overdue, will not occur because of excesses in the economy, but because of a voluntary shutdown to avoid a worst-case death toll from the coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19. A new vocabulary quickly emerged, including terms like “flatten the curve,” “social distancing” and “shelter in place.” Epidemiologists became TV stars, tourism stopped on a dime, schools were closed, workers were told to stay home, the oil market collapsed, corporate bond spreads exploded and investors grew more worried about the banking system than they had been since 2008. Our Funds performed poorly in both absolute and relative terms as the companies we thought were cheapest before the decline tended to be those that were viewed as benefitting the most from a continued strong economy.We were unusually active in the second half of the quarter. We believe that extreme market volatility allowed us to increase the fundamental attractiveness of our portfolio. We were able to buy stocks in companies we believed offered greater undervaluation, higher quality or stronger balance sheets (and, in some cases, offered all three) than the companies we were selling. When markets make such extreme moves, desperate investors who need cash have to sell, and those with cash are able to buy— in contrast to normal conditions when trades tend to occur because investors have different time horizons or opinions on a stock’s long-term value. In the past quarter, we often purchased from desperate sellers, using assets from our cash reserves or from selling off some of our holdings that had performed relatively well. To highlight the opportunities available: typically, we at Oakmark buy stocks priced at less than 60% of our estimate of business value and sell them when their price exceeds 90% of that value. During the past few weeks, we were selling stocks priced at 60% or more of our estimate of business value and buying companies priced at less than 40%. To us, these are incredibly compelling opportunities.Amidst this turmoil, the financial media has been full of speculation as to whether or not the stock market bottom has been reached. We don’t believe anyone knows and we know that we don’t know either. Earlier this month, we wrote a note reminding Oakmark shareholders that we don’t consider market timing to be a skill of ours, so instead we consistently encourage portfolio rebalancing. Today, that likely means selling assets that have performed well, like Treasury bonds, and using the proceeds to buy assets that have underperformed, like stocks. That restores the portfolio balance that existed prior to the stock market’s downturn. In our personal accounts, most of the Oakmark portfolio managers bought more of the Oakmark Funds to rebalance our own investments.As we look to the new quarter, we anticipate that our trading activity will remain at an elevated level as we continue to adjust to changing stock prices and capture the tax losses created by the downturn. We will also look even more closely at the management teams running our companies. We only invest in those companies that we believe are being managed to maximize long-term business value per share. We will evaluate what our companies accomplish during this downturn and revise our management quality ratings accordingly.When we look back to 2008, some companies completed strategic acquisitions that were only possible because of the financial crisis: Wells Fargo purchased Wachovia, Liberty Media bought Sirius XM, Comcast bought NBC Universal and Berkshire Hathaway bought Burlington Northern. In hindsight, each of these added significantly to the acquirer’s per share value. Other companies, such as Netflix, took advantage of their own depressed share price to reduce the number of shares outstanding, increasing each remaining share’s percentage ownership. From late 2007 through 2010, Netflix repurchased 27% of its outstanding shares at an average price of $6 per share. Netflix today is priced at $372 per share, more than 60 times the repurchase price. We have no doubt that many of our companies will be looking for the value-enhancing opportunities created by this economic downturn.On a final note, I want to express my thanks to the Harris Associates IT team. We’ve never been a work-from-home firm, believing that the corporate culture we so jealously guard would be eroded without the shared experience of being in the office together. Despite that, to protect our employees and our investors, we went to a work-from-home mandate a week before the city of Chicago did. It was no small task to make sure that all of our 200 employees could seamlessly communicate with each other, that our many data feeds were fully accessible and that we could execute the increased trading volume that we expected in a high volatility environment. It went off without a hitch.Our analyst group has remained connected via daily group chats and weekly Zoom happy hours. With virtual meetings, we have maintained our tradition of sharing great lunchtime conversations as a team. It isn’t perfect, so don’t expect us to ever be one of those firms that works primarily from home. But given what I’ve heard from friends at other investment firms, we’ve been able to maintain our usual routines better than most. And to all my colleagues at Harris Associates, if nothing else positive comes from this, working from home has made me extremely grateful for the wonderful bunch of people I typically get to see every day. I miss you all and look forward to the day we can be back in the office together.We are hopeful that three months from now, when you read our second-quarter commentary, the Cubs will be playing baseball, we will be eating inside of restaurants and we will all be rescheduling the trips we’ve had to cancel. If that has happened, we believe the economy will likely recover quickly as will the stock market. But if it takes longer to return to normal, know that we have weighted our portfolios toward companies that we believe can survive a longer downturn and that we fully expect can emerge stronger on the other side.

Luis Angel Hernandez 22/03/20 06:08

Ha respondido al tema Destripando el Oakmark Global

Es interesante ver como analizan los bancos europeos Oarkmark en un reciente artículo: The outlook for the European banks owned in the Oakmark International Fund has moderated given the impact of the coronavirus to the global economy. While we are not experts at the coronavirus, we have a deep investment team who is experienced and practiced at valuing businesses. This disciplined approach helps us identify opportunities during times of crisis and increased volatility. We continue to believe we are positioned in the strongest banks in the sector, including BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse Group, Intesa Sanpaolo, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal bank of Scotland (RBS), given they are well capitalized with high profitability buffers. Impact to intrinsic value We are constantly stress testing our assumptions to determine the interest rate and economic sensitivity of our banks. To incorporate slower economic growth and reduced central bank interest rates, we are making three key adjustments: Reducing base interest ratesLowering loan growthIncreasing credit costsInterest rates We believe the coronavirus will impact interim cash flows as governments take austerity measures and expect the lower base rates to persist for FY 2020 and for the first half of FY 2021. Our base case scenario is that rates remain lower for the next two years with an eventual return to pre-coronavirus normalcy in 2022. As a result of lower interest rates for potentially the next two years, we have brought down fair values by a few percentage points. In a lower for longer scenario, where these recently lowered rates persist for the next five years, our intrinsic value estimates would be reduced by mid-single digits. European banks have been operating in an environment with negative interest rates for some time now. Actions taken by our banks have produced positive returns as a result of adeptly reducing costs, investing in digital and repositioning their asset mix toward superior quality. For example, we’ve invested with CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio since his days at Banco Santander. We initiated a position in Lloyds, the U.K. leader in consumer banking, in December 2011 after his arrival because of Horta-Osorio’s strong operational and capital allocation track record. Under his leadership, Lloyds has improved their net interest margin to 3%, twice the level of the average European bank. If interest rates were to remain flat from the recently reduced levels over the next five years, our interim profitability and capital generation assumptions would need to be reduced and we estimate that this could be a 2-9% headwind to our projected fair values. Keep in mind that assumes no offsetting measures taken by management, including cost reduction measures, growing fee-based businesses and a rationalization of marginal competitors, a scenario we see as unlikely. Asset quality We do not see a big asset quality issue at the European banks. Given tighter underwriting standards, uncertainty surrounding Brexit and slow European growth heading into this disruption, we do not have residential or commercial real estate bubbles that need correcting, unlike heading into the global financial crisis. Governments across Europe are being very proactive in supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises and industries that are more exposed to the coronavirus, such as airlines and hotels. Going forward, we do assume increases in non-performing loans (NPLs) and bankruptcies of corporate clients of the European banks. Overall, we are modeling an increase in NPLs of 20% in FY2020 and 10% in FY2021 but we note that increases are on a very low base (i.e., RBS’s NPL is at only 1.2%). Because we believe our bank holdings have strong loan books and good exposure to mortgages (which will be supported by governments), we do not believe these short-term adjustments will be material to our valuations. Credit costs As is typical when an economic cycle ends, we are now modeling in an increase in the cost of credit over the next two years. Figure 2: Credit cost scenario analysis Importantly, we believe European banks remain better positioned now than during the global financial crisis in the context of materially higher liquidity buffers and higher capital.LiquidityThe European Central Bank (ECB) is taking steps to ensure liquidity. The ECB reintroduced LTRO, a cheap loan scheme that was first used in 2011, with the aim to eliminate potential Euro liquidity strains. In the first LTRO auction this week, €109 billion was taken up by 110 banks. We believe this will be an effective back-stop for banks as funding conditions worsen. We are monitoring three month Libor – OIS spreads. While they have widened in the past week, they remain well off the global financial crisis highs. Importantly, we believe European banks remain better positioned now than during the global financial crisis in the context of materially higher liquidity buffers and higher capital. Liquidity The European Central Bank (ECB) is taking steps to ensure liquidity. The ECB reintroduced LTRO, a cheap loan scheme that was first used in 2011, with the aim to eliminate potential Euro liquidity strains. In the first LTRO auction this week, €109 billion was taken up by 110 banks. We believe this will be an effective back-stop for banks as funding conditions worsen. We are monitoring three month Libor – OIS spreads. While they have widened in the past week, they remain well off the global financial crisis highs. Figure 3: 3 Month USD LIBOR –OIS Spread Capital When banks entered the global financial crisis, they were unprepared for the situation as their capital positions were roughly 6-7% as measured by the Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio (CET1). Today, they have doubled this amount of capital to levels around 12-14% from both capital increases and deleveraging. Not only is capital higher but it is on a higher risk weighted asset base as the risk weighting has increased since 2007. While regulations and rules stiffened over the last decade, central banks in Europe and the United Kingdom are now reducing these counter cyclical buffers to help support the economy. The Bank of England (BOE) recently announced reduced capital requirements for both RBS and Lloyds, leaving them both way over-capitalized. Figure 4: European Banks Core Tier 1 Capital RatioGiven the spread of the virus within Italy, it appears Intesa will be the most impacted by this as it stands now. However, Intesa has the highest buffer to its required capital at ~460 bps, positioning the company to handle potential spikes in credit costs.Widening value gapAs is often the case, share prices of our banks have fallen by approximately 35% over the last month. We believe a value gap is widening. When this occurs, you can expect us to purchase the names with the most upside to intrinsic value, essentially de-risking our portfolio.Figure 6: Oakmark International Financial holdings valuation updateWhen the uncertainty starts to wane in time, we believe the European financials can provide strong total returns for our shareholders. Thank you for your continued confidence and patience.

Luis Angel Hernandez 17/03/20 15:48

Ha respondido al tema Destripando el Oakmark Global

The most common question we are getting asked today by investors is, “How should I change my portfolio given how much the market is down?” If you’ve read any of our older commentaries, you can guess that the answer will probably include the word “rebalance.” During times of crisis, we think it is important to remember what our expertise is and limit our opinions to what we know best. Nobody at Oakmark is an infectious disease specialist. Our opinion on the duration and magnitude of the economic decline caused by the coronavirus is no more likely to be accurate than what you can read at many online sources. But our expertise is in valuing businesses and we have the historical perspective of how stock market prices and long-term business values can sometimes radically diverge. The S&P 500 has declined by 30% since its peak on February 19. My colleague Win Murray recently wrote a piece looking at discounted cash flow math. He showed that with the market trading at more than 20 times earnings, the current year cash flow represents only about 4% of a typical company’s value. Clearly, this suggests the market decline may be excessive relative to a sober analysis of the potential loss in business value. With our historical perspective, we can tell you that if the economy and P/E multiples return to “normal” within a few years, current valuations look unusually attractive. During market corrections over the past decade, we’ve often been asked, “How do the values today compare to those during the Great Recession in 2008?” The answer has always been that while the values looked good relative to history, they were not as extreme as in 2008. Today, I can say that our analysis suggests similar attractiveness. On our approved list of about 120 stocks, all but two are trading beneath our buy target. At Oakmark, we normally sell stocks when they reach our sell targets and redeploy that capital into those selling at their buy targets. Today as in 2008, we see opportunities to sell a stock at its buy target and redeploy the capital into a stock selling at half of our buy target. By no means does that mean today is the market bottom. We don’t think we are any better at guessing market tops and bottoms than anyone else. That’s why our advice is always to look at one’s asset allocation—and when extreme market moves take it out of balance, sell what’s gone up and use those funds to buy what’s gone down. In a little under a month, the stock market has fallen by nearly 30%, while long bonds have increased nearly 20%. If your asset allocation in mid-February was consistent with your financial plan, the market has since moved it out of balance. To restore your asset allocation today would require selling about 30% of your long bond portfolio and reinvesting the proceeds in stocks. As an example, say that on February 20, a $100,000 portfolio was invested $60,000 in the S&P 500 and $40,000 in long-term U.S. Treasuries. Today, the portion in the S&P 500 would have fallen to about $42,000, while the bonds increased to $48,000. But, the bonds have inadvertently become the majority of what now is a $90,000 portfolio. To restore a 60/40 balance, the investor needs to sell $12,000 of bonds and invest that money in equities1. We and others don’t know when the market will bottom, but rebalancing after large moves restores exposure to an asset that has underperformed and positions the portfolio for an eventual recovery. And remember, rebalancing isn’t necessarily completed after one adjustment. If the stock market either recovers quickly or continues to decline, another rebalance would be needed to get back to asset allocation targets. Most of the Oakmark portfolio managers have added to their personal holdings of our Funds to restore their own portfolio balance. An interviewer last week said to me, “As value investors, you must feel like kids in a candy store.” While that is true for those of us who work at Oakmark, most investors have the opposite reaction. It’s easier emotionally to sell after a market decline than it is to buy. That’s a big reason why so many investors have historically underperformed the market. They buy after stocks go up and sell after stocks go down. Instead of making that an emotional decision, taking steps to rebalance removes the emotion and has you buying after declines and selling after increases. As with things outside of finance, if decision-making can be mechanized, the implementation becomes much easier. We are confident that there are many attractive opportunities today for investing additional long-term capital in the stock market.